The Wildfire Collection + The Gallery Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −8 670.33₴

Invest 13 912.33₴

Average return 5 242.00₴

ROI −62.3%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 32 137.36 ₴, profit at most −26 895.35 ₴

float premium: at least 17 580 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

10 179.13 ₴

at 2 544.78

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 30 427.34 ₴ +27 882.56 ₴ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1247

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0798

3 733.20 ₴

at 3 733.20

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) — 18 405.60 ₴ +14 672.40 ₴ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0652

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 13 912.33 ₴ −8 670.33 (−62.3%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 94%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

12 322.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

10 556.88 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 235.41 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

6 195.50 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

11 144.37 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 837.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 194.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

7 139.81 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 505.46 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 548.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 966.40 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 141.33 ₴ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

9 599.77 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

8 272.64 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 607.58 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

3 909.73 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

7 043.57 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

2 983.64 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

2 900.69 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 829.60 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

2 816.61 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

2 583.86 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 578.05 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 199.80 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife

no wear

5 362.45 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −9 255.69 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −8 751.48 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Gallery Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3409085 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −8 265.72₴ · invest 15 697.90₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.079815
Craft 3409096 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 265.72₴ · invest 15 697.90₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.079815
Craft 3409351 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 307.60₴ · invest 15 859.84₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076684 instead of 0.079815
Craft 3409359 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit −8 307.60₴ · invest 15 859.84₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076684 instead of 0.079815
Craft 3407170 · The Gallery Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −8 670.33₴ · invest 13 912.33₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3409175 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit −9 012.27₴ · invest 16 444.45₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.079815
Craft 3409186 · The Spectrum Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −9 012.27₴ · invest 16 444.45₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079195 instead of 0.079815

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Gallery Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build