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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The 2021 Vertigo Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +21 966.71₽

Invest 82 965.55₽

Average return 104 932.26₽

ROI +26.5%

Chance of profit 100%

If buying now (with float)

invest 203 057.52₽ · profit −98 125.25₽ (-48.3%) · chance of profit 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) × 1 38% of the wear window fits ×1.85 13569.34 → 25089.71 ₽

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) × 9 38% of the wear window fits ×2.56 69396.21 → 177966.58 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −82 966 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The 2021 Vertigo Collection

+21 966.71 ₽ +26.5% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) · 105 831.57 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −82 966 ₽

1× Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) buy 0.4500–0.5836
9× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.2378

Variant 2 The Revolver Case Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+8 547.50 ₽ +37.2% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) · 102 412.00 ₽ · chance 20%

marketplace price

2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1640
8× G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1640

Variant 3 The Kilowatt Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+5 456.29 ₽ +25.8% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) · 102 412.00 ₽ · chance 20%

marketplace price

2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1699
8× Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060

Variant 4 The Fracture Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+4 910.75 ₽ +24.5% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) · 102 412.00 ₽ · chance 20%

marketplace price

2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
1× M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1626
7× XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+4 289.52 ₽ +19.7% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) · 102 412.00 ₽ · chance 20%

marketplace price

2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1686
2× Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
6× P250 | Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 6 The Revolution Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+4 123.89 ₽ +17.9% chance of profit 20%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New) · 102 412.00 ₽ · chance 20%

marketplace price

2× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1616
1× P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
7× AWP | Duality (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035

How to build

38% of lots fit collecting: no data

×1

Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.5836

13 569.34 ₽

at 13 569.34

souvenirSteam

×9

Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.2378

69 396.21 ₽

at 7 710.69

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 82 965.55 ₽ +21 966.71 (+26.5%)

What you get 2 outcomes

Profitable outcome 100%
Losing outcome 0%

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger

Field-Tested

121 706.30 ₽ 90.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

worst

AWP | Desert Hydra

Field-Tested

111 364.33 ₽ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +5 006.39 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +21 226.72 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The 2021 Vertigo Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1707784 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Ancient Collection · profit 23 074.65₽ · invest 79 242.21₽
profit on prices without salesat least −79 242 ₽ rare inputs

Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) instead of Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.193886 instead of 0.237824
Craft 1707841 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 21 890.75₽ · invest 74 149.87₽
profit on prices without salesat least −73 358 ₽ rare inputs

P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) instead of Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.256259 instead of 0.237824
Craft 1705701 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The 2021 Vertigo Collection · profit 21 633.87₽ · invest 87 430.00₽
profit on prices without salesat least −87 430 ₽ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.227205 instead of 0.237824
Craft 1709189 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 21 542.11₽ · invest 74 412.99₽
profit on prices without salesat least −74 413 ₽ rare inputs

AK-47 | Red Laminate (Well-Worn) instead of Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.252278 instead of 0.237824
Craft 1709190 · The 2021 Vertigo Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 21 465.48₽ · invest 74 489.62₽
profit on prices without salesat least −73 783 ₽ rare inputs

AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred); Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested): float at most 0.167078 instead of 0.237824

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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