Crafts · The Shadow Collection
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The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection

Classified → Covert About the craft Craft 1741924 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +824.51₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 6 055.46₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 6 879.97₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +13.6%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 60%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 14 681.48₽ · profit at most −7 801.51₽ (at most -53.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 4137.60 → 10385.38 ₽
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 382.61 → 826.44 ₽
XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 1535.25 → 3469.66 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection
+824.51 ₽ +13.6% chance of profit 60%
expensive: USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) · 9 250.39 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 6× G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1632
  • 1× MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1632
  • 3× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
Variant 2 The Spectrum Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+2 295.40 ₽ +31.5% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) · 14 528.03 ₽ · chance 10%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 5 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
  • 2× CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
Variant 3 only The Snakebite Collection
+2 046.31 ₽ +29.9% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 10 178.43 ₽ · chance 50%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0771
  • 2× XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+1 591.83 ₽ +28.4% chance of profit 55%
expensive: M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) · 21 202.92 ₽ · chance 5.0%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
  • 1× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1633
Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+1 428.59 ₽ +19.1% chance of profit 100%
expensive: USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) · 10 178.43 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 7× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756
  • 2× XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0049
  • 1× P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0756
Variant 6 The Sport & Field Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+1 355.95 ₽ +16.3% chance of profit 55%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) · 16 676.71 ₽ · chance 10%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 8× XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0767
  • 1× XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 1× Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6
G3SG1 | Flux
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1632
4 137.60 ₽
at 689.60
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163218f′ (normalized) 0.181353wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 45 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 52) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×1
MP9 | Food Chain
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1632
382.61 ₽
at 382.61
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163218f′ (normalized) 0.163218wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 350 · good ≈ 4
on the market with this float, usually ~4, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 1 270.35 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 181 · from 1 097.28 ₽ (float 0.1502) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×3
XM1014 | XOXO
Minimal Wear
buy 0.0700–0.0745
1 535.25 ₽
at 511.75
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074597f′ (normalized) 0.082886wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 98 · good ≈ 2
on the market with this float, usually ~2, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 1 147.04 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
Lis-Skins: no listings with this float (total 99) · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 6 055.46 ₽ +824.51 (+13.6%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.149999900 result 0.150000, 0.150000, 0.118500, 0.150000 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 4 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 60%
  • Losing outcome 40%
in profit
M4A1-S | Golden Coil
Minimal Wear
9 059.93 ₽ 30.00%
Steam M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)net 7878.20 you get 0.150000 sells 40 a week sell now to a buy order: 9 223.88 ₽ (you get 8 020.76)) · buy orders: 1200 sell on Market.CSGO: 7 701.31 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 8 444.42 · lots 30 on CSFloat: from 7 071.08 ₽ listings: 97 on CS.Money: ~ 8 013.32 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 7 288.65 ₽ listings: 146
in profit
best
USP-S | Kill Confirmed
Minimal Wear
10 637.95 ₽ 30.00%
Steam USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)net 9250.39 you get 0.150000 sells 23 a week sell now to a buy order: 10 318.77 ₽ (you get 8 972.84)) · buy orders: 900 sell on Market.CSGO: 8 617.07 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 9 448.55 · lots 30 on CSFloat: from 8 085.27 ₽ listings: 159 on CS.Money: ~ 8 931.57 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 8 102.40 ₽ listings: 216
at a loss
worst
M4A4 | In Living Color
Minimal Wear
4 444.00 ₽ 20.00%
Steam M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear)net 3864.35 you get 0.118500The Snakebite Collection sells 62 a week sell now to a buy order: 3 996.12 ₽ (you get 3 474.88)) · buy orders: 3042 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 305.88 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 3 624.87 · lots 56 on CSFloat: from 3 095.68 ₽ listings: 137 on CS.Money: ~ 3 378.36 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 3 213.04 ₽ listings: 335
at a loss
USP-S | The Traitor
Minimal Wear
5 569.01 ₽ 20.00%
Steam USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)net 4842.62 you get 0.150000The Snakebite Collection sells 53 a week sell now to a buy order: 5 330.08 ₽ (you get 4 634.85)) · buy orders: 2775 sell on Market.CSGO: 3 849.57 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 4 221.03 · lots 46 on CSFloat: from 4 101.31 ₽ listings: 175 on CS.Money: ~ 4 167.27 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 4 373.70 ₽ listings: 140
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