Crafts · The Shadow Collection
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The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1742016 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +3 582.69₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 2 130.91₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 5 713.60₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +168.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 5 559.85₽ · profit at most +153.75₽ (at most +2.8%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 94.57 → 204.27 ₽
XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 2036.34 → 5355.57 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 557 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −1 557 ₽: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection
+3 582.69 ₽ +168.1% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 557 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 9 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+486.75 ₽ +58.6% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 2 128.47 ₽ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
Variant 3 only The Train 2025 Collection
+3 996.74 ₽ +176.6% chance of profit 33%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 714 ₽
  • 10× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0079
Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+3 950.83 ₽ +160.5% chance of profit 40%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 967 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
  • 1× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0245
Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+3 793.28 ₽ +165.4% chance of profit 34%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 685 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0073
  • 1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0873
Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+3 670.75 ₽ +166.4% chance of profit 32%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 17 131.20 ₽ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 626 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 6 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
  • 1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0751

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
MAC-10 | Rangeen
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0075
94.57 ₽
at 94.57
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007568f′ (normalized) 0.015137wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 299 · good ≈ 7
Market history: no data yet
×9
XM1014 | Run Run Run
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0075
2 036.34 ₽
at 226.26
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007568f′ (normalized) 0.010138wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 505 · good ≈ 39
on the market with this float, usually ~19, new ~1.65 per day, cheapest usually 1 498.16 ₽ · among lots up to 3 300.00 ₽
Set · 10 pcs 2 130.91 ₽ +3 582.69 (+168.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.010638198 result 0.007447, 0.010638, 0.070000, 0.009574, 0.010638, 0.006596, 0.009574 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 7 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 30%
  • Losing outcome 70%
at a loss
MAC-10 | Derailment
Factory New
725.39 ₽ 30.00%
Steam MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)net 630.77 you get 0.007447The Train 2025 Collection sells 74 a week sell now to a buy order: 687.54 ₽ (you get 597.86)) · buy orders: 1828 sell on Market.CSGO: 579.03 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 634.91 · lots 72 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 582.48 ₽ listings: 384 on CS.Money: ~ 574.77 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 550.78 ₽ listings: 620
at a loss
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
Factory New
1 168.47 ₽ 30.00%
Steam Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)net 1016.06 you get 0.010638The Train 2025 Collection sells 23 a week sell now to a buy order: 1 046.13 ₽ (you get 909.67)) · buy orders: 1772 sell on Market.CSGO: 827.22 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 907.05 · lots 90 on CSFloat: from 853.15 ₽ listings: 284 on CS.Money: ~ 943.95 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 842.02 ₽ listings: 356
in profit
best
Tec-9 | Whiteout
Factory New
19 700.88 ₽ 30.00%
price without deals
Steam Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)net 17131.20 you get 0.070000The Train 2025 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 14 721.28 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 16 141.76 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 13 421.77 ₽ listings: 207 on CS.Money: ~ 14 491.64 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 13 700.16 ₽ listings: 118
at a loss
Galil AR | Stone Cold
Factory New
1 970.27 ₽ 2.50%
Steam Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)net 1713.28 you get 0.009574 sells ≈18 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 2 001.41 ₽ (you get 1 740.35)) · buy orders: 4669 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 605.74 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 1 760.69 · lots 28 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 1 567.54 ₽ listings: 108 on CS.Money: ~ 1 612.94 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 570.97 ₽ listings: 147
at a loss
M249 | Nebula Crusader
Factory New
617.65 ₽ 2.50%
Steam M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)net 537.09 you get 0.010638 sells 9 a week sell now to a buy order: 615.82 ₽ (you get 535.49)) · buy orders: 3342 sell on Market.CSGO: 541.07 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 593.28 · lots 12 on CSFloat: from 568.77 ₽ listings: 41 on CS.Money: ~ 520.80 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 519.09 ₽ listings: 60
at a loss
worst
MP7 | Special Delivery
Factory New
466.76 ₽ 2.50%
Steam MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)net 405.88 you get 0.006596 sells 26 a week sell now to a buy order: 506.81 ₽ (you get 440.70)) · buy orders: 4069 sell on Market.CSGO: 427.77 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 469.05 · lots 17 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 425.72 ₽ listings: 59 on CS.Money: ~ 417.16 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 459.98 ₽ listings: 88
at a loss
P250 | Wingshot
Factory New
633.92 ₽ 2.50%
Steam P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)net 551.23 you get 0.009574 sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 600.52 ₽ (you get 522.19)) · buy orders: 5454 sell on Market.CSGO: 537.13 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 588.96 · lots 32 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 501.96 ₽ listings: 112 on CS.Money: ~ 526.80 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 530.22 ₽ listings: 136
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