Crafts · The Shadow Collection
₴≈
₽ RUB ₴ UAH ₸ KZT $ USD

≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 0.5240 ₴. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted About the craft Craft 1742016 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +1 877.31₴
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 1 116.58₴
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 2 993.89₴
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +168.1%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 30%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 913.33₴ · profit at most +80.56₴ (at most +2.8%) · chance of profit at most 30%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) × 1 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 49.55 → 107.04 ₴
XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) × 9 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 1067.03 → 2806.29 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −816 ₴ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −816 ₴: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection
+1 877.31 ₴ +168.1% chance of profit 30%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −816 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 9 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0075
Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection
+255.06 ₴ +58.6% chance of profit 92%
expensive: AWP | Black Box (Factory New) · 1 115.31 ₴ · chance 30%
rare inputs
  • 1× MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056
  • 9× R8 Revolver | Monarch (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0765
Variant 3 only The Train 2025 Collection
+2 094.27 ₴ +176.6% chance of profit 33%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 33%
profit on prices without salesat least −898 ₴
  • 10× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0079
Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+2 070.21 ₴ +160.5% chance of profit 40%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −1 031 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0064
  • 1× MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) buy 0.0200–0.0245
Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+1 987.66 ₴ +165.4% chance of profit 34%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −883 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy. pricier variants exist Pattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0073
  • 1× XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0800–0.0873
Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection
+1 923.45 ₴ +166.4% chance of profit 32%
expensive: Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New) · 8 976.64 ₴ · chance 30%
profit on prices without salesat least −852 ₴ rare inputs The rarest input sells 6 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 9× XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
  • 1× UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0751

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 4 contracts · medium (estimate)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1
MAC-10 | Rangeen
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0075
49.55 ₴
at 49.55
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007568f′ (normalized) 0.015137wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 299 · good ≈ 7
Market history: no data yet
Lis-Skins: suitable 1 of 164 · from 274.69 ₴ (float 0.0036) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
×9
XM1014 | Run Run Run
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0075
1 067.03 ₴
at 118.56
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.007568f′ (normalized) 0.010138wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 505 · good ≈ 40
on the market with this float, usually ~19, new ~1.25 per day, cheapest usually 785.03 ₴ · among lots up to 1 729.18 ₴
Lis-Skins: suitable 16 of 235 · from 518.86 ₴ (float 0.0067) · craft not before 15.10 · data 07.10 02:08 MSK
Set · 10 pcs 1 116.58 ₴ +1 877.31 (+168.1%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.010638198 result 0.007447, 0.010638, 0.070000, 0.009574, 0.010638, 0.006596, 0.009574 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 7 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 30%
  • Losing outcome 70%
at a loss
MAC-10 | Derailment
Factory New
380.10 ₴ 30.00%
Steam MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)net 330.52 you get 0.007447The Train 2025 Collection sells 74 a week sell now to a buy order: 360.27 ₴ (you get 313.27)) · buy orders: 1828 sell on Market.CSGO: 303.41 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 332.69 · lots 72 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 305.22 ₴ listings: 384 on CS.Money: ~ 301.18 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 288.61 ₴ listings: 620
at a loss
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
Factory New
612.27 ₴ 30.00%
Steam Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)net 532.41 you get 0.010638The Train 2025 Collection sells 23 a week sell now to a buy order: 548.17 ₴ (you get 476.66)) · buy orders: 1772 sell on Market.CSGO: 433.46 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 475.29 · lots 90 on CSFloat: from 447.05 ₴ listings: 284 on CS.Money: ~ 494.62 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 441.21 ₴ listings: 356
in profit
best
Tec-9 | Whiteout
Factory New
10 323.14 ₴ 30.00%
price without deals
Steam Tec-9 | Whiteout (Factory New)net 8976.64 you get 0.070000The Train 2025 Collection
by lot · 0 sales per day
no buy orders sell on Market.CSGO: 7 713.86 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 8 458.18 · lots 20 on CSFloat: from 7 032.93 ₴ listings: 207 on CS.Money: ~ 7 593.53 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 7 178.80 ₴ listings: 118
at a loss
Galil AR | Stone Cold
Factory New
1 032.41 ₴ 2.50%
Steam Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)net 897.75 you get 0.009574 sells ≈18 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 1 048.73 ₴ (you get 911.93)) · buy orders: 4669 sell on Market.CSGO: 841.40 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 922.59 · lots 28 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 821.38 ₴ listings: 108 on CS.Money: ~ 845.17 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 823.18 ₴ listings: 147
at a loss
M249 | Nebula Crusader
Factory New
323.64 ₴ 2.50%
Steam M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New)net 281.43 you get 0.010638 sells 9 a week sell now to a buy order: 322.69 ₴ (you get 280.59)) · buy orders: 3342 sell on Market.CSGO: 283.52 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 310.88 · lots 12 on CSFloat: from 298.03 ₴ listings: 41 on CS.Money: ~ 272.90 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 272.00 ₴ listings: 60
at a loss
worst
MP7 | Special Delivery
Factory New
244.58 ₴ 2.50%
Steam MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New)net 212.68 you get 0.006596 sells 26 a week sell now to a buy order: 265.57 ₴ (you get 230.92)) · buy orders: 4069 sell on Market.CSGO: 224.15 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 245.78 · lots 17 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 223.07 ₴ listings: 59 on CS.Money: ~ 218.59 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 241.03 ₴ listings: 88
at a loss
P250 | Wingshot
Factory New
332.17 ₴ 2.50%
Steam P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)net 288.84 you get 0.009574 sells 16 a week sell now to a buy order: 314.67 ₴ (you get 273.62)) · buy orders: 5454 sell on Market.CSGO: 281.45 ₴ to your card cheapest lot 308.61 · lots 32 price ignores float on CSFloat: from 263.02 ₴ listings: 112 on CS.Money: ~ 276.04 ₴ on Lis-Skins: from 277.83 ₴ listings: 136
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