The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −94 377.44₸

Invest 164 156.07₸

Average return 69 778.63₸

ROI −57.5%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 361 139.68 ₸, profit at most −291 361.10 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −99 132.83 ₸

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.5012

65 211.12 ₸

at 32 605.56

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3865

66 040.59 ₸

at 33 020.29

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3865

32 904.36 ₸

at 32 904.36

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 164 156.07 ₸ −94 377.44 (−57.5%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

152 384.98 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.118108

99 474.49 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

96 859.63 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

106 903.48 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

43 808.94 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

43 547.13 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

79 106.17 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

33 998.51 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

43 028.65 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

38 212.65 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

56 391.59 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

89 635.84 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

727 863.99 ₸ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

385 740.90 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

355 553.38 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

467 295.42 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

328 783.15 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

304 764.18 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

147 526.80 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

45 920.39 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Field-Tested

float up to 0.281081

66 012.90 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

57 761.39 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

32 070.56 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

35 996.01 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

46 508.89 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

29 505.36 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

33 407.28 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

26 915.30 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

20 130.89 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

22 998.95 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

103 726.68 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

35 989.06 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

50 800.53 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

48 253.34 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

31 531.18 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

29 932.97 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

130 932.07 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

35 043.01 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Field-Tested

float up to 0.281081

58 995.01 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

67 277.35 ₸ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

35 336.73 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

27 777.53 ₸ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) × 2 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 65 211.12 → 144 116.58 ₸

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) × 2 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 66 040.59 → 145 949.70 ₸

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 32 904.36 → 71 073.41 ₸

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.432432332

outcomes come out up to 0.034594, 0.118108, 0.432432, 0.432432, 0.432432, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.000000, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.432432, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.281081, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.432432, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.432432, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.281081, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −104 209.08 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −95 541.62 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2291953 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −91 300.46₸ · invest 145 380.50₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn); ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.493016 instead of 0.501289; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385474 instead of 0.386527
Craft 2291959 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit −91 300.46₸ · invest 145 380.50₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn); ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.493016 instead of 0.501289; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385474 instead of 0.386527
Craft 2291587 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −94 377.46₸ · invest 164 156.07₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build