The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −17 656.57₽

Invest 30 711.08₽

Average return 13 054.51₽

ROI −57.5%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 67 563.69 ₽, profit at most −54 509.19 ₽

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −18 546.23 ₽

Check:

Buy on Sell on

How to build

share of fitting lots unknown assemble: no data

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.5012

12 200.00 ₽

at 6 100.00

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3865

12 355.18 ₽

at 6 177.59

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3865

6 155.90 ₽

at 6 155.90

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 30 711.08 ₽ −17 656.57 (−57.5%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

28 508.89 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.118108

18 610.15 ₽ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

18 120.95 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

20 000.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

8 195.98 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

8 147.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

14 799.55 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

6 360.60 ₽ 6.15%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

8 050.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

7 149.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

10 550.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

16 769.49 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

136 172.18 ₽ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

72 166.20 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

66 518.58 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

87 423.80 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

61 510.28 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

57 016.70 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

27 600.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

8 591.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Field-Tested

float up to 0.281081

12 350.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

10 806.27 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

5 999.91 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

6 734.30 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

8 701.10 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

5 520.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

6 249.99 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

5 035.44 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

3 766.18 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

4 302.75 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

19 405.67 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

6 733.00 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

9 504.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

9 027.46 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

5 899.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

5 600.00 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.034594

24 495.38 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.207567

6 556.01 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Field-Tested

float up to 0.281081

11 037.06 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Field-Tested

float up to 0.367567

12 586.56 ₽ 0.67%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Well-Worn

float up to 0.432432

6 610.96 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.216216

5 196.75 ₽ 0.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) × 2 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 12 200.00 → 26 962.00 ₽

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) × 2 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 12 355.18 → 27 304.95 ₽

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) × 1 9% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 6 155.90 → 13 296.74 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.432432332

outcomes come out up to 0.034594, 0.118108, 0.432432, 0.432432, 0.432432, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.379999, 0.000000, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.432432, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.281081, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.432432, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.432432, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216, 0.034594, 0.207567, 0.281081, 0.367567, 0.432432, 0.216216

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Variant 2 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −19 495.92 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −17 874.37 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 2291953 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −17 080.92₽ · invest 27 198.46₽
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn); ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.493016 instead of 0.501289; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385474 instead of 0.386527
Craft 2291959 · The Falchion Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit −17 080.92₽ · invest 27 198.46₽
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn); ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked: Well-Worn instead of Field-Tested; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.493016 instead of 0.501289; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn): float at most 0.385474 instead of 0.386527
Craft 2291587 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −17 656.57₽ · invest 30 711.08₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build