Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 47 752.
Profitable35 813craftsof 39 148 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 39 148.Shown in the list below: 121.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 19 498,
“profit only from resale” — 277,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 422.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0075 (≈2% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0075 (≈2% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0744 (under 1% of this wear's listings); MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1629 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Off World (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0039 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0744 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Rain Station (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0038 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0040 (≈1% of this wear's listings); MP7 | Army Recon (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0746 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0040 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.